Statistical and Computational Tradeoffs in Stochastic Composite Likelihood

Maximum likelihood estimators are often of limited practical use due to the intensive computation they require. We propose a family of alternative estimators that maximize a stochastic variation of the composite likelihood function. Each of the estimators resolve the computation-accuracy tradeoff differently, and taken together they span a continuous spectrum of computation-accuracy tradeoff resolutions. We prove the consistency of the estimators, provide formulas for their asymptotic variance, statistical robustness, and computational complexity. We discuss experimental results in the context of Boltzmann machines and conditional random fields. The theoretical and experimental studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the estimators when the computational resources are insufficient. They also demonstrate that in some cases reduced computational complexity is associated with robustness thereby increasing statistical accuracy.Comment: 30 pages, 97 figures, 2 author

Asymptotic Analysis of Generative Semi-Supervised Learning

Semisupervised learning has emerged as a popular framework for improving modeling accuracy while controlling labeling cost. Based on an extension of stochastic composite likelihood we quantify the asymptotic accuracy of generative semi-supervised learning. In doing so, we complement distribution-free analysis by providing an alternative framework to measure the value associated with different labeling policies and resolve the fundamental question of how much data to label and in what manner. We demonstrate our approach with both simulation studies and real world experiments using naive Bayes for text classification and MRFs and CRFs for structured prediction in NLP.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figure

Automatically Bounding the Taylor Remainder Series: Tighter Bounds and New Applications

We present a new algorithm for automatically bounding the Taylor remainder series. In the special case of a scalar function $f: \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$, our algorithm takes as input a reference point $x_0$, trust region $[a, b]$, and integer $k \ge 1$, and returns an interval $I$ such that $f(x) - \sum_{i=0}^{k-1} \frac {1} {i!} f^{(i)}(x_0) (x - x_0)^i \in I (x - x_0)^k$ for all $x \in [a, b]$. As in automatic differentiation, the function $f$ is provided to the algorithm in symbolic form, and must be composed of known atomic functions. At a high level, our algorithm has two steps. First, for a variety of commonly-used elementary functions (e.g., $\exp$, $\log$), we use recently-developed theory to derive sharp polynomial upper and lower bounds on the Taylor remainder series. We then recursively combine the bounds for the elementary functions using an interval arithmetic variant of Taylor-mode automatic differentiation. Our algorithm can make efficient use of machine learning hardware accelerators, and we provide an open source implementation in JAX. We then turn our attention to applications. Most notably, in a companion paper we use our new machinery to create the first universal majorization-minimization optimization algorithms: algorithms that iteratively minimize an arbitrary loss using a majorizer that is derived automatically, rather than by hand. We also show that our automatically-derived bounds can be used for verified global optimization and numerical integration, and to prove sharper versions of Jensen's inequality.Comment: Previous version has been split into 3 articles: arXiv:2308.00679, arXiv:2308.00190, and this articl

PACm^m-Bayes: Narrowing the Empirical Risk Gap in the Misspecified Bayesian Regime

While the decision-theoretic optimality of the Bayesian formalism under correct model specification is well-known (Berger 2013), the Bayesian case becomes less clear under model misspecification (Grunwald 2017; Ramamoorthi 2015; Fushiki 2005). To formally understand the consequences of Bayesian misspecification, this work examines the relationship between posterior predictive risk and its sensitivity to correct model assumptions, i.e., choice of likelihood and prior. We present the multisample PAC$^m$-Bayes risk. This risk is justified by theoretical analysis based on PAC-Bayes as well as empirical study on a number of toy problems. The PAC$^m$-Bayes risk is appealing in that it entails direct minimization of the Monte-Carlo approximated posterior predictive risk yet recovers both the Bayesian formalism as well as the MLE in its limits. Our work is heavily influenced by Masegosa (2019); our contributions are to align training and generalization risks while offering a tighter bound which empirically performs at least as well and sometimes much better.Comment: Submitted to ICML 202